Category: Whitepapers

 5/18/2020  This is never simple to evaluate, as current prices for rates and risk assets have a behavioral component, and appropriate price levels may only be obvious in hindsight. In past cycles, equity bear markets and subsequent recoveries have unfolded over months, not weeks. This more recent volatility event was…

 4/29/2020  Who Do You LUV?  This has to be the craziest title I’ve ever created for a client focused article based on stocks, bonds and the economy, but it is appropriate. This weekend I spent close to six hours reading research reports and opinions on what COVID-19 has done or still…

 4/22/2020  The price of oil has moved to a unique position in recent days. Headlines this week point to the price of oil falling to ‘zero’ or even to ‘negative’ levels for the first time. While this is unusual, it’s not as nonsensical as it sounds. No, oil is not…

 4/13/2020  It’s possible, but it’s probably wise to not count on it. We’ve seen a remarkably quick and dramatic plunge and subsequent recovery in recent weeks. This consisted of the S&P 500 falling -34% from its peak on Feb. 19, to a low point on Mar. 23, before recovering by…

   4/3/2020  The vast majority of Americans have probably never heard of the term “Black Swan” especially when used in the context of an economic event.  So why are we writing an article about this thing called a Black Swan?  It’s because Black Swans create an unpredictable, negative and many…

 3/30/2020  The long-awaited Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act was passed, totaling $2.2 trillion in its final form. Despite hopes for passage mid-week, the final bill was delayed due to opposition about some components from politicians on both the far right and far left, as well as operational…

 3/30/2020  By buying large amounts of some debt (treasuries and agency mortgages, primarily, but also targeted purchases in other segments), the Fed has agreed to become a natural source of promised or actual demand where there otherwise might not be any. This can help stem the tide of possible price…

   3/23/2020  These are difficult times, not only from an economic and investment standpoint, but a community one as well. This societal strains and uncertainty over depth and time-frame of the current pandemic add to the volatility in financial assets. Keep in mind, though, as we’ve mentioned in prior notes, that…

 3/16/2020  In short, it’s about messaging and credit markets. While lowering interest rates by a percent to zero at this stage may not make a marginal difference to consumer and corporate borrowers on a day-to-day level, it does allow for a further easing in financial conditions. Such accommodation could theoretically…

 3/12/2020  Negative sentiment concerning the coronavirus has been relentless, which has been spurred by media coverage and a variety of governmental actions to combat the contagion’s spread. Most recently, these have included the President’s temporary ban on incoming flights from Europe (which appeared to be a catalyst for today’s -7%…