5/18/2020 This is never simple to evaluate, as current prices for rates and risk assets have a behavioral component, and appropriate price levels may only be obvious in hindsight. In past cycles, equity bear markets and subsequent recoveries have unfolded over months, not weeks. This more recent volatility event was…Continue Reading Have some financial asset prices bounced back too far and too fast?
4/29/2020 Who Do You LUV? This has to be the craziest title I’ve ever created for a client focused article based on stocks, bonds and the economy, but it is appropriate. This weekend I spent close to six hours reading research reports and opinions on what COVID-19 has done or still…Continue Reading Who Do You LUV?
4/22/2020 The price of oil has moved to a unique position in recent days. Headlines this week point to the price of oil falling to ‘zero’ or even to ‘negative’ levels for the first time. While this is unusual, it’s not as nonsensical as it sounds. No, oil is not…Continue Reading Market Note – Oil
4/13/2020 It’s possible, but it’s probably wise to not count on it. We’ve seen a remarkably quick and dramatic plunge and subsequent recovery in recent weeks. This consisted of the S&P 500 falling -34% from its peak on Feb. 19, to a low point on Mar. 23, before recovering by…Continue Reading Is the bear market over?
4/3/2020 The vast majority of Americans have probably never heard of the term “Black Swan” especially when used in the context of an economic event. So why are we writing an article about this thing called a Black Swan? It’s because Black Swans create an unpredictable, negative and many…Continue Reading Black Swan: The Reality Of Unexpected Volatility
3/30/2020 The long-awaited Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act was passed, totaling $2.2 trillion in its final form. Despite hopes for passage mid-week, the final bill was delayed due to opposition about some components from politicians on both the far right and far left, as well as operational…Continue Reading What are the details of last week’s Congressional actions?
3/30/2020 By buying large amounts of some debt (treasuries and agency mortgages, primarily, but also targeted purchases in other segments), the Fed has agreed to become a natural source of promised or actual demand where there otherwise might not be any. This can help stem the tide of possible price…Continue Reading What do the recent Federal Reserve actions and backstop mean?
3/23/2020 These are difficult times, not only from an economic and investment standpoint, but a community one as well. This societal strains and uncertainty over depth and time-frame of the current pandemic add to the volatility in financial assets. Keep in mind, though, as we’ve mentioned in prior notes, that…Continue Reading Thought of the Week
3/16/2020 In short, it’s about messaging and credit markets. While lowering interest rates by a percent to zero at this stage may not make a marginal difference to consumer and corporate borrowers on a day-to-day level, it does allow for a further easing in financial conditions. Such accommodation could theoretically…Continue Reading Why has the Fed reacted so dramatically? Why has the market reacted the way it has to Fed actions?
3/12/2020 Negative sentiment concerning the coronavirus has been relentless, which has been spurred by media coverage and a variety of governmental actions to combat the contagion’s spread. Most recently, these have included the President’s temporary ban on incoming flights from Europe (which appeared to be a catalyst for today’s -7%…Continue Reading Market Update