9/8/2020 The impact of a potential new President on stock market returns is always a key question in the weeks prior to a general election. It’s important to keep in mind that, despite frequent worries around this time of year, and that financial markets may react in the shorter-term term…
Continue Reading What would be the impact of a Biden Presidential election win, potentially including a Democratic takeover of the Senate?Category: Whitepapers
What causes sudden market declines like we saw this week, seemingly out of nowhere?
9/8/2020 There often isn’t a concrete reason. It’s important to remember that stocks trade in a market like any other good: when there are more buyers than sellers, prices move higher; when buyers dry up, this can reverse quickly. It’s been argued that certain large cap growth stocks have become…
Continue Reading What causes sudden market declines like we saw this week, seemingly out of nowhere?Are the financial markets (‘Wall Street’) and the real economy (‘Main Street’) disconnected?
7/13/2020 Although they may appear to be disconnected on the surface, and near-term outcomes are impossible to predict, they’re likely no more disconnected than usual. One of the more important considerations to keep in mind about financial markets is that they’ve always been forward looking. Economic data, by its nature…
Continue Reading Are the financial markets (‘Wall Street’) and the real economy (‘Main Street’) disconnected?What more can the Fed do at this point?
6/15/2020 As was the case during the financial crisis 12 years ago, the Fed is essentially out of ammunition at the short end of the yield curve (unless rates go negative, which continues to be seen as unlikely). There remain robust tools, such as buying of debt to push rates…
Continue Reading What more can the Fed do at this point?Are negative interest rates again being considered as a viable option for the U.S.?
5/26/2020 With U.S. short-term interest rates again reaching the zero bound (fed funds rate of 0.00-0.25%), debate has surfaced again about moving the target range further—to below-zero territory. Several developed nations, mostly in Europe, moved down this path years ago, and now remain entrenched in it, with global slowing causing…
Continue Reading Are negative interest rates again being considered as a viable option for the U.S.?Have some financial asset prices bounced back too far and too fast?
5/18/2020 This is never simple to evaluate, as current prices for rates and risk assets have a behavioral component, and appropriate price levels may only be obvious in hindsight. In past cycles, equity bear markets and subsequent recoveries have unfolded over months, not weeks. This more recent volatility event was…
Continue Reading Have some financial asset prices bounced back too far and too fast?Who Do You LUV?
4/29/2020 Who Do You LUV? This has to be the craziest title I’ve ever created for a client focused article based on stocks, bonds and the economy, but it is appropriate. This weekend I spent close to six hours reading research reports and opinions on what COVID-19 has done or still…
Continue Reading Who Do You LUV?Market Note – Oil
4/22/2020 The price of oil has moved to a unique position in recent days. Headlines this week point to the price of oil falling to ‘zero’ or even to ‘negative’ levels for the first time. While this is unusual, it’s not as nonsensical as it sounds. No, oil is not…
Continue Reading Market Note – OilIs the bear market over?
4/13/2020 It’s possible, but it’s probably wise to not count on it. We’ve seen a remarkably quick and dramatic plunge and subsequent recovery in recent weeks. This consisted of the S&P 500 falling -34% from its peak on Feb. 19, to a low point on Mar. 23, before recovering by…
Continue Reading Is the bear market over?Black Swan: The Reality Of Unexpected Volatility
4/3/2020 The vast majority of Americans have probably never heard of the term “Black Swan” especially when used in the context of an economic event. So why are we writing an article about this thing called a Black Swan? It’s because Black Swans create an unpredictable, negative and many…
Continue Reading Black Swan: The Reality Of Unexpected Volatility